Are major natural disasters increasing?

The number of natural weather disasters with damages of more than a billion dollars has increased over the last forty years, from an average 3.3 per year in the 1980s to 17+ from 2014–2023.

The National Centers for Environmental Information has kept track of billion-dollar natural disasters since 1980 and cites increased exposure, vulnerability, and climate change as reasons for the increase.

Are billion-dollar natural disasters becoming more frequent?

Of the 10 years with the most natural disasters, nine were in the last decade.

Since 1980, there have been 395 natural weather disasters in the US with total costs over $1 billion in 2024 dollars, including 201 severe storms, 63 tropical cyclones (or hurricanes), 44 floods, 31 droughts, 24 winter storms, 23 wildfires, and nine freezes. ^[1] In total, these disasters cost $2.77 trillion (adjusting for inflation) and took the lives of nearly 16,500 people.

The bulk of these events happened post-1990: In the 1980s, there were a total of 33 billion-dollar natural disaster events, with 2,994 deaths. In the last 10 full years (2014–2023), this number rose to 173, resulting in 5,872 deaths. All told, nearly 40% of the billion-dollar climate events that have hit the US since 1980 happened between 2017 and the present day.

Just this year — between January and July of 2024 — there were 19 billion-dollar events, tied for the fourth-highest total in a calendar year since 1980, and with five months still remaining in the year.

How are natural disaster costs calculated?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculates the costs of individual natural disasters. These estimates include:

• Physical damage to homes, businesses, and government buildings
• Damage to property inside these buildings
• Costs associated with businesses being shut down or people losing their homes
• Damage to vehicles, including boats
• Damage to public assets like roads, bridges, and electrical infrastructure
• Damage to agricultural assets
• The costs of suppressing a wildfire

The cost estimates don’t include environmental damages, any physical or mental healthcare costs, or larger supply chain impacts, nor does the government put a price tag on the lives lost .

Because of the way disaster costs are calculated, the estimated totals are considered conservative evaluations. The true costs are difficult to capture due to limitations in data collection.

Which types of natural disasters are the costliest?

Major tropical cyclones, including hurricanes, have done the most damage in terms of both total costs and loss of life.

The eight costliest natural disasters since 1980 were all tropical cyclones, with 2005’s Hurricane Katrina as the costliest at $200B. After adjusting for inflation, these eight events accounted for $888 billion in damages. Cyclones account for just over half of all costs associated with billion-dollar disasters, with approximately $1.4 trillion in total damages.

Tropical cyclones were also responsible for 6,934 deaths, or 42.0% of the total caused by billion-dollar disasters, with the two most fatal — Katrina and 2017’s Hurricane Maria — accounting for 4,814.

Droughts, which can be fatal during extreme heat, accounted for another 27.4% of deaths, though most of those were pre-2000.

Which states are most affected by natural disasters?

Each geographic region of the US deals with a unique combination of weather and climate hazards.

Texas has had the most billion-dollar disasters at 186, or approximately 4.1 disasters per year.^[2] It’s followed by Georgia (129), Illinois (126), Missouri (118), and North Carolina (117).

Historically, the South, Central, and Southeast regions incurred the highest costs from billion-dollar disaster events. Texas, Florida, and Louisiana disasters cost the most, each paying for more than $300 billion in damages (in 2024 dollars) since 1980.

How are disaster relief efforts funded?

Funding for natural disasters comes from all levels of government. Local and tribal governments are the first line of defense and are expected to manage the immediate impacts of emergencies. When necessary, federal disaster funding supports local disaster response.

Each state has its own way of managing disaster funding. Some establish statewide disaster accounts, specialized funds that provide money to counties, cities, and towns for disaster costs. These accounts are typically funded through the state’s general revenue fund. Some states also maintain non-specific “rainy day” funds that can be tapped for disaster relief.

When the cost of a disaster exceeds the state’s capacity to respond, the state government may apply for federal assistance. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reviews these applications and makes a recommendation to the president, and a presidential disaster declaration commits federal government assistance to the impacted state(s).

According to a 2015 Governmental Accountability Office report, the federal government pays roughly 75% of expenses when a disaster receives a presidential declaration. As the number of natural disasters has increased in recent years, so has the amount of federal funding.

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